KI: Welche Fähigkeiten künftig stärker gefragt sein werden
Aus einer Studie dreier US-amerikanischer Ökonomen.
History tells us that we should expect the occupational upgrading of office work to continue.
In some sense, sales and administrative-support jobs serve intermediary functions.
The purpose of a sales worker is to connect firms to consumers who wish to buy their products.
The purpose of an administrative-support worker is to reduce communication and coordination frictions between customers and the firm or between workers within the firm.
Personalized pricing algorithms and product recommendations, inventory management, oral and written transcription, and automated scheduling are some of the many sales and administrative-support office innovations made possible by AI.
In each case, the purpose of the innovation is to increase productivity by smoothing the transmission of information within firms and between firms and the labor market.
As AI technology improves, these innovations may lead to declining employment in sales and administrative-support occupations.
However, the impact of AI on professional and managerial workers is less clear.
Early research studies and casual observation suggest that LLMs and other AI tools can replace highly skilled knowledge workers in some job tasks.
A reasonable prediction is that the tasks replaced by AI will soon become commodified by the labor market.
These tasks include writing business plans, generating good ideas for article headlines, and writing or translating software code.
The remaining tasks—analysis, decision-making, and adjudicating between the conflicting perspectives and desires of co-workers—are likely to become highly valuable as a result.
While AI certainly helps with these tasks, the demand for good ideas and cogent analysis of complex counterfactual thought experiments (for example, assessing the likely impact of different business decisions, product strategies, etc.) may be nearly unlimited.
At least in the near term, AI is more likely to ratchet up firms' expectations of knowledge workers than it is to replace them.
In that case, policy solutions such as increased public investment in STEM education and training and reskilling will be necessary to help workers adapt to and effectively use new technologies.
Zitat aus:
TECHNOLOGICAL DISRUPTION IN THE LABOR MARKET
David J. Deming, Christopher Ong, Lawrence H. Summers
Die Arbeit ist noch nicht peer-reviewed.