Erdogan macht den Putin
Der Beitrag im Economist ist vom 19. März, aber aktuell und wichtig.
Hundreds of police officers are in front of our doors,” Ekrem Imamoglu said in a video message to his supporters on March 19th, speaking into his smartphone. “We are up against tyranny, but I will not be discouraged.” The mayor of Istanbul, and the Turkish opposition’s expected candidate in the next presidential elections, was about to leave his apartment. Moments later he was arrested. His party is calling it an attempted putsch by Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Arrest warrants were issued the same day for 105 others, including some of Mr Imamoglu’s advisers, municipal officials from his Republican People’s Party (CHP) and a top journalist. As news spread, roads to the police station where Mr Imamoglu had been taken were blocked. The authorities also restricted access to social-media platforms and closed metro stations. In the name of safeguarding “public order”, Istanbul’s governor announced a ban on public gatherings for four days. Thousands of protesters defied the order the same evening by turning up at a rally in front of the mayor’s office.
Turkish prosecutors seem to be following an old Soviet formula with Mr Imamoglu: “Show me the man and I will find you the crime.” Over the past three years he has faced a slew of investigations and indictments, on charges ranging from corruption to insulting election officials who tried to strip him of victory in the 2019 mayoral contest. The charges now levelled against him include leading a crime organisation, abetting a terrorist group, bribery and rigging tenders for government work.
The timing of Mr Imamoglu’s arrest seems no coincidence, either. At a party primary scheduled for March 23rd, the CHP was expected to nominate him as its presidential candidate in the elections set for 2028 but widely expected to take place earlier. Mr Imamoglu helped lead the opposition to a shocking victory in last year’s local elections, handing Mr Erdogan and his ruling Justice and Development (AK) party their first defeat in over two decades. He has since enjoyed a comfortable lead over Turkey’s leader in the polls.
The Istanbul mayor’s arrest is the biggest of its kind, but it is not the first and will probably not be the last. The past couple of months have seen detentions of a number of opposition mayors, Kurdish and human-rights activists and various journalists. When two senior members of Turkey’s top business association came out against the crackdown, they too were called in for questioning. They now face up to five years in prison.
Die Märkte sind oft das letzte Regulativ gegen Autokraten und Populisten. Den Wert von Währungen, Aktien und Co kann man nicht diktieren, wie auch Trump spürt.
The Turkish lira, which had regained its footing over the past couple of years thanks to austerity and interest-rate hikes, plunged by more than 12% against the dollar within hours of Mr Imamoglu’s arrest, before paring its losses. Turkey’s central bank reportedly burned through $10bn in foreign reserves to prop up the currency. The main stock index fell by 8.7% on the day, triggering breaks in trading.