Donald Trump tut alles dafür, die Vorherrschaft des Dollars zu unterminieren. Sie wird aber trotzdem bleiben.
Der Schaden dürfte trotzdem enorm sein, vor allem für die USA selbst.
Kenneth Rogoff schreibt im Economist:
Although the greenback will almost certainly remain the world’s dominant currency for at least a couple more decades, it will probably fall several notches. Expect the yuan and the euro to encroach on the dollar in the legal economy. Cryptocurrencies will do the same in the underground economy, which is roughly a fifth of global GDP. Reduced market share will mean higher interest rates on long-term dollar debt, and a weakening of the effectiveness of American financial sanctions, among other problems.
By this measure (what currency central banks focus on as their exchange-rate anchor or reference currency), dollar dominance peaked around 2015, after which China gradually began to make its currency more flexible. This was a change long in the making, since a large economy like China’s can experience very different business cycles than America’s, and there is no reason to make its central bank dance to the Federal Reserve’s tune.
The biggest challenges to dollar dominance come from within, including America’s unsustainable debt trajectory. It is already under strain from the inevitable ending of a period of very low long-term real interest rates. If Mr Trump’s chaos keeps undermining the dollar’s “exorbitant privilege”—the borrowing discount America’s government enjoys thanks to the greenback’s dominance—rates will rise even more.
Above all, Mr Trump’s broad challenge to the rule of law weakens the case for dollar exceptionalism. Until now, trust in the fairness of America’s legal system has helped convince investors that American assets are among the safest in the world. This includes not just Treasuries, but stocks, corporate bonds, property and more. The prices may go up and down, but at least you own what you own. Now, if Mr Trump’s efforts to vastly extend presidential power succeed, foreign holders of US assets will feel less secure.