Die Zahl junger Singles nimmt fast überall auf der Welt stark zu
Die FT schreibt:
The trend is global. From the US, Finland and South Korea to Turkey, Tunisia and Thailand, falling birth rates are increasingly downstream of a relationship recession among young adults. Baby bonuses put the cart before the horse when a growing share of people are without a partner. Even in parts of Sub-Saharan Africa, similar trends may be under way. (FT)
Warum passiert das?
Why an almost worldwide decline, and why now? The fact that this is happening almost everywhere all at once points more to broad changes acting across borders than country-specific factors.
The proliferation of smartphones and social media has been one such exogenous shock. Geographical differences in the rise of singledom broadly track mobile internet usage, particularly among women, whose calculus in weighing up potential partners is changing. This is consistent with research showing social media facilitates the spread of liberal values (notably only among women) and boosts female empowerment.
The fall in coupling is deepest in extremely-online Europe, east Asia and Latin America, followed by the Middle East and then Africa. Singledom remains rare in south Asia, where women’s web access is more limited. (FT)
Weniger Paare im gebährfähigen Alter = weniger Geburten
Das ist erst mal weder gut noch schlecht, aber auf jeden Fall eine andere Welt, als wir sie kennen.
Die Sozialwissenschafterin Alice Evans, die sich damit seit Jahren intensiv beschäftigt, schreibt in einem Beitrag zum Thema, dass vor allem formal weniger gebildete Menschen weniger Kinder bekommen:
Slurs of ‘childless cat ladies’ usually target female graduates, but in the US, Sweden and Finland the real decline is happening among people with less education.
In the U.S., over half of 18 to 34 year olds are neither in a steady relationships nor living with a partner. Most single people don’t even feel much pressure to find a partner. Half say they are not even looking.
Dazu kommt: Frauen werden immer mehr von ökonomischen Abhängigkeiten und kulturellen Fesseln befreit. Wenn der Druck sinkt, eine Beziehung einzugehen, muss sie Spaß machen. Das machen Beziehungen eben nicht immer:
In societies where men and women’s earnings are converging and cultural obligations are fading, relationship formation increasingly depends on LOVE! As singledom rises, it becomes broadly accepted. Free from stigma and economic dependency, people can be more selective about their partners.
Yet compatibility can prove elusive. Men and women who are shy, introverted, boring, aggressive, violent, manipulative, deceitful, unfaithful, or ideologically polarised may ultimately call it quits. The sources of friction are wide-ranging - from personality mismatches to ideological divides. And after perennial disappointments, some may opt out. Without a loving partner, they may hesitate to procreate alone.
Noch eine Hypothese von Evans: Wir verbringen alle sehr viel Zeit mit Smartphones. Vor allem jüngere Menschen. Wir können schlechter darin werden, mit Menschen zu interagieren.
According to GWI (a global consumer research company, surveying internet users aged 16+), East Asians and Europeans report using social media for 1.5-2 hours daily, while Brazilians, Mexicans, Filipinos, Saudis and South Africans report at least 3 hours every day. In the US, 66% of men say that they wish they spent less time on their phone.
A meta-analysis of 33,831 participants across 24 countries found concerning levels of 'problematic smartphone use' - defined by withdrawal symptoms, loss of control, and neglect of other activities. In China, Saudi Arabia and Malaysia, 30% of young adults score above clinical thresholds. Even in France and Germany, 20% report struggling to control their use.
My suspicion is that massive improvement in quality of online entertainment crowd out socialising and development of social skills, possibly hurting relationship formation as well as desire for children within marriage. This is merely a hypothesis, which fits with the global timing and pattern. Personal online entertainment (sports bets, video games, podcasts, TikTok) are so engaging, they may be outcompeting real-world interactions.