Die USA werden nicht Ungarn, aber die Welt wird durch Trump 2 trotzdem eine andere
Der Economist schreibt:
If this revolution is unchecked it could lead towards authoritarianism. Some MAGA intellectuals admire Hungary, where Viktor Orban exercises control over the courts, the universities and the media. And America does indeed leave some room for a would-be authoritarian. Congress has created a lot of exceptions to normal rules which can be activated by the president declaring an emergency, and Mr Trump is making full use of them—witness his delight at the president of El Salvador’s ability to lock people up without trial. Although MAGA cannot control the media, it can intimidate their corporate owners—and, besides, fragmentation has diluted the press’s power to check the president. Congress is supine because Republicans owe him their jobs, and they know it. One worry is that the courts will stand their ground, only for the administration to defy their rulings. Another is that, fearing this, the Supreme Court may try to preserve its authority by pre-emptively caving in.
Yet there is another, more likely, scenario in which the extremism of the first 100 days stirs up powerful forces of resistance. One such force is investors in the bond market and the stockmarket. Though they were broadly enthusiastic about Mr Trump’s election, they have been his most effective opponents—not out of political conviction, but because they deal in reality. They are rightly alarmed about the economy being poisoned by tariffs. Uncontrolled budget deficits and incompetent policy could lead to a crash of the dollar.
Eventually, bad polls will impinge on elected officials. America is a federal system that is too big and has too many rival centres of power to become Hungary (whose population is about the same as New Jersey’s). Congress, too, could become a problem for Mr Trump. Republicans have a thin majority in the House and were able to pass a budget framework only because a couple of Democratic representatives had died. Betting markets give Democrats more than an 80% chance of winning back the House next year. Control would enable the Democrats to frustrate Mr Trump, even if he continued to govern by executive order. In the Senate, Republicans are seven votes short of the 60 needed to avoid a filibuster. Those constraints are real.
Aber:
Even on the most optimistic reading of the MAGA revolution, Mr Trump has already done lasting harm to America’s institutions, alliances and moral standing. And if he is thwarted by investors, voters or the courts, he is liable to lash out against institutions with even greater ferocity. Using the newly politicised Department of Justice, he may persecute his opponents and stir up the fear and conflict that give him licence to operate. Abroad, he could cause alliance-wrecking provocations in, say, Greenland or Panama. There is no going back to the way America was 100 days ago. Only 1,361 days left.