Der Mythos vom Mangel an Arbeitskräften – oder: Es gibt nur einen Erling Haaland
If a company complains about a shortage of vegetable-pickers, what it really means is that it cannot hire them at the wage it would like to pay. The term “labour shortage” thus implies a normative claim—that there “should” be more workers at the prevailing wage—rather than describing an economic reality.
When you dig into the data, evidence of shortages often melts away. Consider construction, a classic “shortage occupation” in many places. America’s homebuilders’ trade group talks of a “dire need” for new workers. In reality, over the past decade, the share of the American workforce involved in construction has risen from 4.5% to 5.2%, which does not scream “shortage”. Maybe the “true” share of construction workers in America should be even higher. But this is hard to square with the data on wages. In the past decade earnings growth in American construction has been slower than the overall average. People simply do not want to pay more for their builders. As such, the market seems perfectly satisfied.
Even high wages are not necessarily proof of a labour shortage. Consider Erling Haaland, Manchester City’s star striker. Mr Haaland commands a huge salary because he scores so many goals. In a sense, then, there is a global shortage of Erling Haalands. But that is an absurd position. No amount of wage increases will create more of him. His ability to command a huge salary is a function of unique ability, not a failure of market supply. It is on this logic that Mr Tabarrok errs in saying there is an “extreme shortage” of high-IQ people. There is always scarcity of very high-performing individuals—that’s why they are valuable. Calling that a “shortage” is just relabelling market-clearing price differences.
Am Markt gebe es keinen Mangel an Arbeitskräften. Nur nicht-Markt kann das verursachen, etwa wenn der Staat zu wenige Ausbildungsstellen für Ärzte schaffe
Politicians could have more impact by getting out of the way. Economists are fond of the idea of allowing firms to bid for visas. This would ensure new workers flow to industries that have greatest need. Relaxing land-use rules would allow people to move to areas where jobs growth is strongest. Politicians should also loosen occupational-licensing requirements. Aside from that, central banks are responsible for managing aggregate labour shortages, by supervising the overall economic cycle. Next time you hear the cursed term, be suspicious. There’s only one Erling Haaland.